Six Questions for New Hampshire Tonight
All Eyes Focus on the "Live Free or Die" state.
The nations first presidential primary is upon us and by the end of the night we will have a clearer picture as to who will make it to Super Tuesday. Here are a few things to watch for as the polls close and the news coverage picks up.
Will Governor Romney get to or surpass 40 percent? – Exceeding expectations that have been set externally on Mitt Romney might be the toughest task of any tomorrow night. As the polls come in watch where Romney is at, if he exceeds 40 percent it’s a slam-dunk performance. If he’s in the low-30’s we will begin to here some chatter about electability in the fall.
Has Santorum’s Iowa bounce dipped? – He’s had only five days to campaign in New Hampshire but needs a respectable finish. However, if Santorum finishes top-three we should all be very impressed and his Cinderella story will continue.
Will Governor Perry beat Governor Roemer? – This isn’t a joke, I promise. It almost seems impractical to discuss, but it could really happen. Former Governor of Louisiana Buddy Roemer, who has been excluded from every debate because he fails to garner 1 percent of support in national polls could actually beat Rick Perry. In the past two New Hampshire polls Roemer actually has more support than Perry. Yes, Perry is basically skipping New Hampshire, but still how embarrassing would it be to lose to Roemer?
Will Ron Paul voters show up? – Congressman Paul polls well, he was polling well in Iowa, but he has a history of under performing during the nomination process on Election Day. Going into the primary his Real Clear Politics average was at 18.3 percent, good enough for second place. Will his passionate support show up and exceed that number?
Who will be the “anybody but Romney” candidate? – This could be New Hampshire’s most impactful result. Many conservatives are looking for a candidate that isn’t Mitt Romney and tonight’s result may provide that. It’s either Gingrich or Santorum and if the latter finishes well ahead of the former Speaker it may make South Carolina a win or go home primary for Newt. If the result is close between the two, the Palmetto State will have a similar assignment for voters going to the polls on Super Tuesday.
Will there be a New Hampshire surprise? – Senator John McCain was the comeback “maverick” four years ago. McCain was said to be a goner after a fourth place finish in Iowa, while Romney was supposed to cruise to a New Hampshire victory. Polling proved to be unreliable in the final days and McCain topped Romney with 37 percent of the vote allowing him to cruise to the nomination. Although unlikely this year, New Hampshire can even leave the Karl Rove’s of the world with egg on their face.
What happens in Iowa doesn’t usually have a large influence on New Hampshire. However, what happens in New Hampshire has had a history of impacting the conversation in South Carolina.
