The Impact of New Hampshire and What’s to Come in South Carolina
Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich squared off at the ABC News Republican Presidential debate on December 10, 2011 (credit ABC/Matthew Putney)
What we learned on Tuesday after the New Hampshire primary was significant and there were three clear-cut winners. Yet, after everything we’ve learned one thing is clear – South Carolina holds significant power next week and the rhetoric will grow increasingly negative.
Yet, before we get into what’s to come let’s take a look at what was the New Hampshire primary.
Moving on with a win:
Mitt Romney – There wasn’t a last second New Hampshire surprise and the Governor from Massachusetts was the big winner on Tuesday.
We’ve learned many things about Mitt over the past few weeks; most notable his support is exceptionally consistent. For over a year now, Romney has been steadily polling in the high 20’s nationally, the mid-20’s in Iowa, and the low-40’s in New Hampshire. With the first in the nation caucus and primary complete it’s tough to get more consistent than this:
Iowa – Romney 24.6%
New Hampshire – Romney 39.3%
Nationally – Romney 28.8%
Plain and simple, the consistency shown by Romney should scare his competitors. If anyone is to take down the front-runner they better do it quick.
Likelihood of winning the nomination: 85%
Ron Paul – Let’s face it, all the candidates in New Hampshire were vying for second place and Ron Paul made a statement by eluding his nearest opponent by 15,000 votes. Congressman Paul showed that he can turn out the vote which has been somewhat of a concern for him. With a third place finish in Iowa and a second place finish Tuesday, Paul could play a significant role at the GOP convention in Tampa Bay. Make no mistake, Ron Paul is here to stay and likely could be the only candidate still technically battling with Romney into the summer.
On the contrary, despite his success in New Hampshire he has little chance to win the nomination. As time goes on more candidates will drop out and given the choice between Paul and Romney, most will run to Romney.
Likelihood of winning the nomination: 2%
South Carolina – New Hampshire provided little clarity in the race. All candidates that made it out of Iowa will be participating in the state’s primary. Moreover, two candidates, mainly Gingrich and Santorum, have the opportunity to stop Romney’s momentum. If Romney wins South Carolina the tires should come off for the “anybody but Romney” candidates.
Having to stomach a tough loss:
Jon Huntsman – He put his heart, his soul, his time, and virtually every dime his campaign had into New Hampshire. He disrespected Iowa, a grave mistake and a moderate candidate like Huntsman won’t play well in the south. Governor Huntsman is done, done, done.
Likelihood of winning the nomination: 0%
Newt Gingrich – The former Speaker is still recovering from a barrage of attack ads in Iowa. He wasn’t going to win New Hampshire but he needed to finish well ahead of Santorum and he finished behind. Newt needed to get close to Huntsman in third place and he didn’t. He needed to get back on message and he continued to stray. He needed to do damage to Romney before South Carolina, which he began to do.
Speaker Gingrich is best on-stage debating his opponents and he will have two more opportunities to do so before South Carolina votes. He needs to use that opportunity to expose Romney’s history of multiple positions on multiple issues, not attacking the Governors time with Bain Capital.
Instead of talking about Bain, he should take a page from McCain and run an ad like this. As much as we all hate negative ads, they work. If Newt’s going to go on the attack he must stay away from Romney’s business career and go after his political career.
Despite having a rough month, Newt has a respectable shot at winning South Carolina. If he does, a comeback is possible.
Likelihood of winning the nomination: 10%
Rick Santorum – The former Senator from Pennsylvania finished a distant fourth. New Hampshire slowed the momentum that was so furious after Iowa. Part of this is because he is receiving front-runner scrutiny and part of it is because he has very little in the way of a multi-state campaign. Santorum put all his resources in Iowa and it worked, the question is now what?
Even with falling poll numbers in South Carolina, Santorum is still facing attacks from his opponents, explicitly Ron Paul in ads like this. Why is this significant? It shows that internal polling from the Paul campaign identifies Santorum as a legitimate threat.
Likelihood of winning the nomination: 3%
Rick Perry – Oh Governor Perry. What was positive in New Hampshire for you? I guess the Texas Governor did beat former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer, but that’s about all.
I still believe that Perry is best able to connect with voters face-to-face, but unfortunately he made too many blunders along the way. He needs to save what clout he has left in the nomination process by dropping out of the race and endorsing Romney, Gingrich, or Santorum.
Likelihood of winning the nomination: 0%
With New Hampshire in the books, what should we look forward too?
January 14 – Huckabee Forum 2 with undecided voters: 7 pm FOX News
January 16 – Fox News and South Carolina GOP debate: 8 pm FOX News
January 19 – CNN and the South Republican Leadership Conference debate: 7 pm CNN
January 21 – South Carolina Primary
