Why Newt Won South Carolina and the Impact on the Race

Newt Gingrich on his most recent stop to Oskaloosa, Iowa December 20, 2011

Six weeks is an eternity in politics and six days is a lifetime. Fortunately for Newt Gingrich, he had the best week of any candidate in any election cycle in recent history. The nomination for president is often times labeled as a delegate race and technically it is. However, momentum is the real test in this contest because momentum leads to success in the primaries and success in the primaries leads to delegates.

January 19

Thursday was full of twist and turns. Everyone was anticipating Marianne Gingrich’s bombshell interview and it was ready to dominate the news cycle. In a surprise turn, early in the morning news broke that Governor Perry would drop out of the race and endorse Newt. Now at first glance this may not have seemed like an earth shattering development, but it was important for Newt for several reasons:

1. Instead of a full day of media focusing on Marianne Gingrich’s ABC interview that was scheduled to air that night, the entire afternoon was dedicated to the Rick Perry endorsement.
2. Governor Perry has a serious and dedicated group of donors who kept him afloat for far longer than he really deserved. Newt has had a problem raising money at times and with Perry’s support that likely won’t continue to plague his campaign. One major advantage that Romney has is campaign cash and this will begin to level that playing field between the two frontrunners.
3. Gingrich becomes one step closer to being the only “anybody but Romney” candidate.

Iowa also made news on Thursday with a new winner in our caucuses. Rick Santorum was basically certified as the winner, taking some momentum out of Romney’s sails. Instead of a historic back-to-back win for the Governor from Massachusetts he split, with the only win coming in a moderate state in New England.

Overall, the change in the Iowa result probably had only a small impact on voters but it did slow any momentum that Romney was trying to garner after a poor debate performance on Monday.

In the long run, the Santorum win will probably have a more negative impact on Gingrich. Santorum can claim that he has viability because he has a win, which will prolong his stay in the race.

Later on in the evening, Gingrich had a very good performance and won the debate in the early minutes with this answer. He received a standing ovation and effectively diminished the impact of his ex-wife’s interview that was to air after the debate.

Finally, just before the day ended ABC aired what was supposed to be a bombshell interview with Marianne Gingrich, who was out to take down his campaign. In the end I actually believe the interview helped Newt. Nothing that was revealed was new and Ms. Gingrich came off as somewhat untrustworthy. In fact, the most surprising development was that she was accused of trying to bribe a foreign official.

Gingrich Defined Romney in South Carolina

Define yourself; don’t let your opponent define you. This is one of the oldest rules in presidential politics. It’s what campaigns talk about weekly, strategize about daily, and worry about hourly.

Gingrich defined Romney in South Carolina as a “Massachusetts Moderate” and the handle stuck. Romney also was on the defense about not releasing his tax returns and when it came up in the debate he had a tough time answering the question, a question he new was going to come up. In the end, the Romney campaign announced today it will release his tax returns on Tuesday– a day after NBC’s Florida debate. Is it by coincidence that Tuesday is also the State-of-the-Union and coverage will move away from the campaign for a day?

Chances of Winning the Nomination

Governor Romney – South Carolina is definitely a wake up call for his campaign. A week ago media outlets across the country were printing headlines like:

Romney in Home Stretch in South Carolina (Major Garrett, National Journal)

Romney’s Rivals Almost out of Time (Michael Finnegan, Los Angeles Times)

Today the headlines are:

Gingrich’s S.C. Win Upends Republican Race (Jeff Zeleny, New York Times)

After Crushing Loss, Can Romney Recover (John Dickerson, Slate)

Romney battled issues of trust in South Carolina. Conservatives voters are still concerned about the ‘flip-flopping’ on healthcare and abortion. Gingrich also has similar issues in regard to capital gains and the individual mandate, but he has done a better job explaining his thought process, often times just saying he was wrong.

The other issue Romney has is he just doesn’t connect well with voters one-on-one. If you doubt this assessment I challenge you to watch C-Span this week during campaign stops in Florida. Romney is very polite and thanks everyone but it just doesn’t sound as genuine. Gingrich, Santorum, and especially Perry often times talk to people, ask questions about the individual, and specifically ask for their support face-to-face.

Case in point, those who identify themselves as very conservative in South Carolina voted 48% for Gingrich and 19% for Romney.

Yet, Romney is still the front-runner and has a huge organization in Florida.

Chance of winning the nomination: 55% (85% last week)

Speaker Newt Gingrich – We’ve talked in-depth about the impact of the South Carolina results for the Gingrich campaign. One thing we haven’t touched on is there are two debates this week in Florida and that is where Gingrich shines.

Chance of winning the nomination: 43% (10% last week)

Senator Rick Santorum – He had a good week, but as we talked about last week he doesn’t have the capability or money to run a national campaign. He is the top second choice in all polls, but being second choice by the voters doesn’t result in votes.

Chance of winning the nomination: 1% (3% last week)

Congressman Ron Paul – We haven’t spoken of Ron Paul yet today, but that’s because his South Carolina performance was less than impressive. Yet, he will continue on in the caucus states and will position himself well for a primetime convention speech. His only shot at winning the nomination is a brokered convention.

Chance of winning the nomination 1% (2% last week)

Upcoming Schedule:
Monday – NBC Debate
Friday – CNN Debate
Jan 31 – Florida Primary