The Impact of the Iowa Caucuses One Week Later

ABC NEWS - MANCHESTER, NH Republican Debate from January 7, 2012 (ABC/ DONNA SVENNEVIK)

Iowa – Those who won, lost, and slid by with a tie

The ads have ceased, the phone calls have ended, and the constant barrage of direct mail has been postmarked to other states. Yet even with the constant effort by candidates to get out the vote, Iowans effectively embraced the responsibility of being first in the nation with a job well done. Eight presidential candidates, if you’re kind enough to include Governors Jon Huntsman and Gary Johnson, weaved in and out of Iowa’s 99 counties over a 360 day span, holding 924 events.

With so much time spent in the state who and what were triumphant?

Winners:

Rick Santorum – The former Pennsylvania Senator spent the most time in the state, literally moving his family here, and campaigning across Iowa’s 99 counties for 105 days. He proved to all candidates that shaking hands and seeing the white in the eyes of the states voters still holds weight in today’s ever-developing technologically based campaigns. Although he unofficially finished behind Governor Romney by eight votes, history may prove that he was the actual winner in more ways than one.

Mitt Romney – Exceeding expectations is rule number one in campaigns for the Oval Office and Governor Romney accomplished that. Just a few months ago Iowans were revolting against the front-runner because of the lack of time he was spending in the state. In a change of strategy, he spent the final month in the state and rallied against the many anti-Romney candidates with an Iowa Caucus win.

Matt Strawn – The elegant chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa wowed the national media with his ability to communicate and effectively describe the importance of Iowa’s involvement in the process. Time after time he defended the states ‘First in the Nation’ responsibility that was constantly under attack by the mainstream media and groups looking to wreak havoc on caucus night.

The Caucus Process – Friends, neighbors, and citizens packed in area precinct locations and showed how an effective democracy can peacefully work.

Smokey Row in Oskaloosa – With many great facilities that are easily capable of holding town hall style event in Oskaloosa, Smokey Row continues to be the venue of choice by campaigns, for good reason.

Governor Branstad – Along with Strawn, Iowa’s Governor was by far one of the most successful defenders of the Caucus. With national appearances on many of the major networks he was critical of those who skipped the state and fair to all who put in the time. Such praise for his leadership here in the state has people whispering about a Vice President nomination. Who knows, but we will soon find out.

Simon Conway – Taking the place of the infamous Steve Deace who was loved and loathed by listeners during WHO Radio’s afternoon timeslot was definitely not an easy task. However, a self proclaimed independent, Conway excelled in the opportunity. He brought a new, more dynamic perspective that attracted all candidates and served as a medium that Iowans could trust for an objective opinion.

South Carolina – The primary to be held in the Palmetto State on January 21 could be the most important to date. With New Hampshire looking like a wipe-out in favor of Romney, South Carolina could be a make or break for the likes of Gingrich and Santorum. Unlikely as it may seem, if Romney wins South Carolina the money may dry up for the “anybody but Romney” candidates and Mitt could coast to the nomination.

Iowa – In the final months leading up the Iowa Caucus the media constantly attacked Iowa for being, well, to different than the rest of the country? In the end the results showed that the heartland continues to simplify the process for the rest of the country, by determining what candidates are viable.

Taking a loss:

Jon Huntsman – Skipping Iowa and trailing by double-digits in New Hampshire usually doesn’t work and it sure made Governor Branstad unhappy. Even John McCain, who some said skipped Iowa, held a mere two dozen events in the state. If Huntsman wants to stay in the race he better start cutting into Romney’s lead in New Hampshire. Without a strong second place finish on Tuesday, Huntsman will probably need to head back to Utah and reassess his strategy for a potential 2016 push.

Michelle Bachmann – What happened to Congresswomen Michelle Bachmann? She won the Iowa Straw Poll, basically knocking out her Governor in Minnesota Tim Pawlenty and had voter enthusiasm that was hard to match just four months ago. Some say it was Rick Perry’s entrance into the race, others claim it was her constant tardiness to events and both could be true. One thing is certain; she missed a huge opportunity that eventually ended her campaign.

Rick Perry – Governor Perry had one of the best, most experienced, and infectious Iowa campaign teams. He is one of the most charismatic and genuine politicians when you meet him face-to-face, far exceeding his opponents in connecting with voters one on one. Unfair as it may seem, if only he would have been able to remember that third agency of government. Nevertheless, Perry will make a play in South Carolina and I predict it will be his last play in the 2012 presidential primary.

The National Mainstream Media – For months they belittled the Iowa voter, the Caucus process, our crops, our towns, and our intellectual ability. How many times have you heard that Iowa is irrelevant since the results on January 3?

The Ames Straw Poll – Candidates spend hundreds of thousands of dollars every year participating in the Republican Party of Iowa’s prominent fundraiser. I doubt future campaigns will be placing similar investments into its results next time around. Michelle Bachmann finished first, then sixth in the Caucus, and Tim Pawlenty’s third place finish knocked him out of the race before college football season.

Kent Sorenson – Jumping ship in the final days from Bachmann to Ron Paul was poorly received and frustrated many within GOP ranks. Not to mention he has a record of not being the most loyal when it comes to support.

Sliding by with a Tie:

Ron Paul – He had expectations that exceeded the results here in Iowa, which is devastating to a campaign in most cases. Many pundits had him winning Iowa, Governor Branstad said he had the best organization, and he was the most consistent in all Iowa polls. In the end, he finished well behind Santorum and Romney for a disappointing third place finish. Yet, Congressman Paul does not get a loss because of his passionate support that extends nationwide. He can raise money and even though he may not be viable late in the game, he will be there.

Newt Gingrich – What a roller coaster ride the former Speaker of the House had here in Iowa. At one point his campaign was dead in the water, then he came back and took the lead in December, but to find himself bloodied by a barrage of attack ads that knocked him to fourth. Gingrich doesn’t get a loss though, why you may ask? He didn’t finish fifth behind Governor Perry and will live to make a final stand in friendlier southern primaries like South Carolina and Florida. He also has a few debates left to showcase his most positive attribute.